4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to LA 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-82-R.Dwelley.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP