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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to LA 39, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model