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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to LA 33, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.98 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model