Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(14:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to SF 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 17-T.Benjamin pushed ob at SF 20 for 9 yards (38-B.Howell).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model