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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 14

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:40) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model