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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.09 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model