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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to CIN 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 34 for 11 yards (23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model