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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to KC 7, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model