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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to CIN 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 17 for 11 yards (23-A.Watts; 41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model