4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to KC 16, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-84-M.Wilcox.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model