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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to KC 28, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model