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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 39

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 6-B.Kern punts 27 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP