Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on CIN-33-T.Flowers, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.70 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model