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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model