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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model