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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 42

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +0.89 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.13 EP