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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 17 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 1-C.Wilson [1-J.Ward].

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.42 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model