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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 16 for 5 yards (81-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.95 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 59, worth -2.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model