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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 7 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 2-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.31 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model