4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 7 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(14:01) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger pass short right to 29-C.Goodwin pushed ob at SF 36 for 16 yards (26-J.Norman).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model