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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.46 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model