Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 7 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to SF 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-T.Benjamin. Injury update: Nick Bosa has a concussion and will not return to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model