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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 7 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(:35) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to SF 3, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-84-S.McKeon.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.55 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model