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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.21 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP