4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to PIT 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP