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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to KC 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 10-T.Hill to KC 20 for -8 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.74 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 38, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model