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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 8-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to PHI 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP