4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 8-A.Siposs punts 27 yards to TB 43, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model