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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to PHI 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 7. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 7 for no gain (49-C.Gill).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.81 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP