Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 83

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

(:06) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to TB 34, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-J.Darden to TB 38 for 4 yards (89-J.Stoll).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.34 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model