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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to PHI 21, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 20 for -1 yards (30-D.Delaney).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model