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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 86

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to PHI 47, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-43-R.Cockrell at PHI 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.82 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 86, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model