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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 8-A.Siposs punts 36 yards to TB 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.72 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model