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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to TB 37 for 10 yards (54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.91 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model