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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 3-R.Succop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model