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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to TB 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 1-J.Darden to TB 31 for 1 yard (48-P.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.65 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model