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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 26

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 1-D.Jackson ran ob at CIN 30 for 26 yards (20-E.Apple).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model