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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 16

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model