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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model