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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 31

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 1-J.Chase right end pushed ob at LV 16 for 15 yards (5-D.Deablo).

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model