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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 12

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model