Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 65

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(4:34) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass incomplete short left to 35-G.Igwebuike.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.08 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.21 EP