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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 16 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 88-J.Winfree to DET 14 for 2 yards (25-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model