Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 73

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 16

(6:17) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to GB 43, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-57-A.Pittman.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model