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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 2

Detroit Lions 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model