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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans to CAR 28 for 14 yards (27-K.Robinson). CAR-29-R.Melvin was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.94 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.71 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model