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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 2-Dj.Moore (24-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.93 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.65 EP
PUNT -1.27 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model