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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 2-Dj.Moore right end to CAR 47 for 13 yards (31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model