4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to CAR 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model