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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34

What Actually Happened

(4:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-R.Anderson to CAR 34 for 6 yards (52-K.Britt).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.94 EP